Abstract

This study examines monetary policy transmission within the CEMAC bloc, evaluating the linkage between central bank credit and domestic absorption across all six member states from 2001 to 2019 (N=108). Within a “Triple Trap” conceptual framework, the analysis utilizes Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) to address cross-sectional heteroscedasticity and contemporaneous correlation. The empirical evidence indicates a probable “absorption trap,” as credit growth lacks a statistically significant stimulative effect on domestic demand. Notably, the coefficient for loans to commercial banks (LCBGR) is insignificant ( = -0.0106, p = 0.235), suggesting the hypothesized “accelerator” mechanism is not empirically robust. Furthermore, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger causality tests demonstrate a unidirectional temporal precedence running from absorption toward credit growth. The causal flow from Government Investment (I) toward Central Bank Credit Growth (CCBGR) is highly significant (p < 0.01), whereas the relationship from Consumption (C) is significant only at the ten percent level (p = 0.051). These findings support the epistemic position that CEMAC credit is primarily reactive to endogenous demand shifts rather than a proactive growth driver. Consequently, the study posits that “one-size-fits-all” monetary policy appears insufficient for the region’s structural specificities.